Traditional economic models often lack the analytical depth required to inform robust policy development and strategic investment decisions in the tourism sector. To address this gap, CETLER-LAB have developed a new, standardized empirical framework designed to rigorously quantify the economic structure of tourism. This methodology transforms subjective estimates into verifiable social science, enabling robust, comparative regional analysis.
Our approach is built upon three core pillars:
1- Foundational Econometric Variables
We integrate a multi-dimensional measurement system to provide a holistic view of the tourism economy. This includes:
- Total Turnover & Employment: Core quantitative indicators of sector size and scale.
- Growth Rate Decomposition: A method to isolate cyclical fluctuations from underlying structural growth trends.
- Income per Employee: A key proxy variable for understanding labor productivity within the sector.
- Population Demographics: Correlating economic output with underlying socio-economic structures to understand labor market dynamics and local impact.
2- Spatial Delimitation & Geoeconomics Modeling
A key innovation of this framework is the formalization and testing of the “study area.” Rather than relying on arbitrary boundaries, our model supports empirically testable spatial frameworks, including:
- Administrative Boundaries: For standardized reporting at municipal or regional levels.
- Functional Economic Areas: Defined by customized radii or travel-time polygons to capture natural economic flows.
- Mixed-Effects Modeling: To account for spatial spillover effects and economic interdependencies between neighboring areas.
3- Methodological Transparency & Data Ontology
To ensure falsifiability and reproducibility, the framework is built on a transparent data structure:
- An A Priori Business Cohort: Analysis begins with a complete, coded list of aggregated workplaces (classified by Swedish Standard Industrial Classification, SNI codes), ensuring a consistent baseline.
- Longitudinal Business Tracking: Monitoring business registrations and dissolutions over time as a leading indicator of economic health and entrepreneurial dynamism.
- Sectorial Granularity: Disaggregating data to identify specific vulnerabilities and growth opportunities within sub-sectors, moving beyond aggregate averages.
This framework is a core component of the Miranda Research Project, funded by the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). Developed by the Centre for Tourism and Leisure Research (CETLER) at Dalarna University, Miranda functions as an advanced decision-support system designed to enhance sustainable tourism and infrastructure planning.
For more information on the Miranda system and its applications, please visit: https://mirandaverktyget.se/turismens-ekonomi-pa-karta/